What It's Like to Debate Sarah Palin

A former debate opponent speaks.

Sounds great: she knows how to "win" a debate without actually saying anything of substance. Our nation really needs another leader like that, doesn't it?

Republicans: It Wasn't Pelosi's Fault After All

A bigger bunch of lying incompetents I can't imagine.

Sarah Palin "Pity Party"? Good Grief!

Just when you thought the whole Sarah Palin thing couldn't get any more ridiculous, now we have commentators saying they feel sorry for poor, poor Sarah.

Give me a break! This isn't someone who has been beset with some tragedy. She made the decision to step into this position knowing full well that she wasn't qualified. She hasn't even had the basic decency to act with any humility, openly and brazenly proclaiming her "readiness", exploiting her own children, and dishonestly attacking even when her opponents stood up for her.

She wants pity? Let her withdraw, then I'll consider it. Right now, it's the American people who deserve pity for having to endure another five weeks of her candidacy.

Bailout Vote Fails -- An Example of the Tragedy of the Commons?

The Tragedy of the Commons describes a situation where individuals each have an incentive to try to maximize their use and benefit from a shared resource, but where that leads to overuse that harms everyone in the group. I think a version of this is what we are seeing with the financial bailout plan, which just failed to pass in the House, leading to a sell-off on Wall Street.

Democrats and Republicans have a strong collective incentive to pass this bailout, because as distasteful as it may be, the alternative is worse. But the deal is unpopular with voters, and this gives individual representatives who are facing re-election an incentive to vote against it.

I'm sure further attempts will be made to get something done, but the timing of this, only a few weeks before Election Day, couldn't be worse.

Pastors Who Want to Eat Their Cake and Have it Too

In case you missed it, yesterday was "Pulpit Freedom Sunday", a protest by church leaders looking to defy the IRS's edict against political endorsements:

Pastor Jody Hice of Bethlehem Baptist Church in Bethlehem, Ga., said in an interview Sunday that his sermon compared Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain on abortion and gay marriage and concluded that McCain "holds more to a biblical world view."

He said he urged the Southern Baptist congregation to vote for McCain.

"The basic thrust was this was not a matter of endorsing, it's a First Amendment issue," Hice said. "To say the church can't deal with moral and societal issues if it enters into the political arena is just wrong, it's unconstitutional."

At the independent Fairview Baptist Church in Edmond, Okla., pastor Paul Blair said he told his congregation, "As a Christian and as an American citizen, I will be voting for John McCain."

"It's absolutely vital to proclaim the truth and not be afraid to proclaim the truth from our pulpits," Blair said in an interview.

Because the pastors were speaking in their official capacity as clergy, the sermons are clear violations of IRS rules, said Robert Tuttle, a professor of law and religion at George Washington University. But even if the IRS rises to the bait and a legal fight ensues, Tuttle said there's "virtually no chance" courts will strike down the prohibition.

"The government is allowed, as long as it has a reasonable basis for doing it, to treat political and nonpolitical speech differently, and that's essentially what it's done here," Tuttle said.

Whining aside, religious groups already have far too much power and infuence on the political process -- this is the last thing the country needs. The solution to this problem is simple: get rid of the tax exemption for churches.

Mayor "Just Curious" if Obama is the Antichrist

Sometimes I really wish the north had lost the Civil War:

Fort Mill Mayor Danny Funderburk says he was “just curious” when he forwarded a chain e-mail suggesting Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama is the biblical antichrist. “I was just curious if there was any validity to it,” Funderburk said in a telephone interview. “I was trying to get documentation if there was any scripture to back it up.”

Is it too late to change our minds and let the South secede?

McCain Camp Working the Refs on the VP Debate

Blah blah blah.

Americans are counting on Gwen Ifill to be objective in helping us learn as much as possible abotu Sarah Palin, since the Keystone Kops Kampaign sure as hell isn't.

"Free Palin"? Give Me a Break.

First they said Palin was being hidden because she needed time to prepare. Then they blamed the "big bad media". Then some said it was part of a grand plan to "trick" people into having low expectations for her.

Well the new Republican "strategy" with Palin, apparently, is to claim that she's really a great smart and informed gal who came across poorly because she was being too "restricted" by the campaign, and that she's going to "revive" the ticket. Whatever.

Frankly, I think the entire thing is exceedingly lame. Palin is an empress with no clothes, but that's besides the point. McCain is on the top of the ticket, and he is the one who needs to "revive" it, not Palin.

USA Today / Gallup Poll Says Obama Won First Debate

Confirms other reports.

Powerful Ad Shows McCain Winning on November 4th

A third party group has released a really powerful ad that seems aimed at combatting complacency on the part of Obama supporters. Very effective, IMO.

Sarah Palin Interview with Katie Couric "Part Four" :)

Definitely the most enjoyable one to watch. :)

Bullshit About Horseshit

Now there's a rumor going around that when Obama confronted McCain on his comments about Spain, the latter muttered "horseshit" under his breath. Andrew Sullivan, the famous blogger, is spreading around this, uh, manure, and it's going all over the place. {Edit: Sullivan just retracted his comments. I love the guy but he's, uh, stepped in it this time, and is going to get slammed on this (and rightly so).}

I listened to it several times, and while I am not absolutely clear what he said, the hard "C" sound is, to me, unmistakable -- I think that he said "course not" or similar. It is definitely not clear that he said "horseshit", and I think it's damned irresponsible for people to start with this sort of nonsense.

Even if it sounds like "horseshit" to some people, you do NOT make an accusation like this unless you are 100% positive, and that is not the case here. Whatever else I think about McCain, he is an experienced politician and would never do something like that.

It doesn't help Obama at all for his supporters to hand the McCain camp another piece of ammunition a la "Trig is not Sarah Palin's baby".

Barack Obama and the Return of Grace

Michael Seitzman spells out fully a point I've been trying to make to people who felt Obama should have attacked McCain more. This is not what Obama is about. And it is part of why Obama won the primary and why he is winning the general as well.

There's nothing wrong with recognizing that your opponent makes a good point. Voters want someone who is tough, but also someone who is classy and fair and decent. Obama came across as decent last night; McCain didn't. And that's what people come away with after they've forgotten all the words that were tossed around.

Why Voters Thought Obama Won

An excellent analysis from Nate Silver, contrasting the gap between whom the pundits thought won the debate and the very different answers from voters. Highlights:

TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness.

Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi, but figuratively to the punditry. It is no surprise that a small majority of pundits seemed to have thought that McCain won, even when the polls indicated otherwise; the pundits were his target audience.

...

Meanwhile, voters thought that Obama “seemed to be the stronger leader” by a 49-43 margin, reversing a traditional area of McCain strength. And voters thought that the candidates were equally likely to be able to handle the job of president if elected.

...

McCain’s essential problem is that his fundamental strength – his experience -- is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.

EDIT: The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21.

Worth a full read.

MediaCurves Snap Polling Says Obama Won With Independents

Figures on their web site broken out by issue.

Quick Reaction Poll Suggests Obama Did Well

Independents think Obama won:

CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.

These figures are still preliminary and could change as more respondents complete the survey. But here's what we have so far:

Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.

Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.

Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.

Forty-nine percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-five percent think McCain would.

These numbers are a win for Obama, regardless of what they thought of McCain.

Overall First Impressions on the First Debate

Executive Summary: *Yawn*. Overall a rather boring debate, no real zingers or winners or gaffes. On the whole I think Obama won slightly on presentation and demeanor, McCain won on subject matters. Obama will benefit more because he had more to gain.

Random observations:

1. Where was Mccain's lapel pin?

2. Obama looked into the camera many times, McCain not even once.

3. McCain seemed agitated and passionate, Obama cool as a cucumber. I think both could have done better in going the opposite direction.

4. Obama did very well on Iran I thought. McCain did better on Russia.

5. Obama really blew it at the end when he didn't respond to McCain's accusations and all the "I heart veterans" stuff. No mention of the GI bill? Why not?

6. Obama clearly was trying to shift the discussion to domestic issues.

7. McCain seemed skittish but overall in control. I'm not sure if voters wondering about his recent behavior will be comforted more by the latter or worried more about the former.

8. Obama was confident and that should reassure some who were concerned about his ability to hold his own on these issues. He was nothing like what he was at Saddleback.

9. McCain spoke in old talking points far too much. In fact, when he said "Let us win" in his bracelet story, I said it along with him because I have heard it so many times.


Bottom Line: Both did fine but the net edge IMO is slightly to Obama simply because Obama had a lot more to gain here than Mccain did. There are millions of voters who want to vote for Obama but were concerned about his abilities and this should make many of them feel a bit better. This won't change any decided voters' minds either way.

Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #8 - Likelihood of Another 9/11 Attack

McCain: Much less than it was the day after 9/11. Safer nation but far from safe. He and Lieberman wanted to form commission to look into 9/11. Got most of reforms written into legislation. Bipartisan effort. Need better job of human intelligence. Trained interrogators so we don't torture. Knows allies and can work more closely. Probably had largest reorganization
of government because of recommendations. Long way to go before America is safe.

Obama: Safer in some ways. Done work in border security. Need to harden chemical sites. Risk to ports. Worry is not nuclear missile but nuclear suitcase. Spending billions of dollars on missile defence, says we need it but we need more money on preventing nuclear proliferation. Need to focus on root cause of Al Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan. How we are perceived matters, will restore our standing in the world. Less respected now. Because of things we have done, lot of work to restore sense of America as a shining beacon.

McCain: Obama said missile defence had to be proven. Still doesn't get it that if we fail in Iraq it encourages Al Qaida. His plan would lead to defence and loss of our sacrifices we've made.

Obama: Administration and McCain have been solely focused on Iraq. Bin Laden still out there. China has $1 trillion because we spent money in Iraq. Viewed everything through this single lens. Brings up veterans affairs (not really covered in this debate?) President has to have broader strategic vision.

McCain: Involved in every security challenge in last 25 years. Doesn't believe Obama has knowledge or experience and has made wrong decisions in a number of areas. Seen stubbornness before, cling to belief that surge has not succeeded. He loves the veterans and will take care of them. He has judgment to keep nation safe and secure.

Obama: Closing statement, talking to camera. Father came from Kenya because America was place to be. Must send message to the world that we are going to do what we need to do.

McCain: Knows how to heal wounds of war, and how to deal with enemies and friends.

Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #7 - Relationship with Russia

Obama: Have to evaluate based on recent happenings, resurgent Russia is a problem. Georgia situation unacceptable. Must have unified alliance that they cannot be a 21st century power and act like 20th century dictatorship. Affirm fledgling democracies. Countries like Georgia and Ukraine can join NATO, action plan to bring them in. Cannot return to Cold War posture with Russia. Loose nukes could fall into hands of Al Qaida. He's worked on this. Don't deal with Russia by staring into eyes and seeing soul, work from our interests. Recent behavior needs sharp response.

McCain: Obama's first response was that both sides should show restraint. Naivete on Obama's part. Oil causing KGB led country. Need to bolster friends and allies. Georgia had to do with energy. Former Soviet countries concerned about Russian actions. Russia must understand that we support inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Russians are in violation of their ceasefire agreement. Poster of Putin in Georgia, they were waiting for opportunity. Watch Ukraine.

Obama: Agrees with McCain mostly, says he did reply forcefully about Russia. Was first to call for rebuilding Georgia's economy, called for $1 billion for Georgia. We must have foresight and anticipate some of these problems. In April he warned administration about Russian peacekeepers in Georgia. Need energy strategy to deal not just with Russia but also other rogue nations. We need to drill but we also need clean coal, nuclear. McCain voted 23 times against alternative energy.

Lehrer tries to move on.

McCain and Obama arguing about nuclear energy. McCain says he opposes nuclear storage, Obama says he doesn't.

Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #6 - What is Threat of Iran

McCain: Iran getting nuclear weapon is existential threat to Israel. Cannot allow a second Holocaust. Proposed league of democracies. Concern about Russia. Could impose meaningful sanctions on Iran that would help. They have a lousy government so have lousy economy. We can affect Iranian behavior. Have no doubt that Iran continues to try to get nuclear weapon. Putting the most lethal IEDs into Iraq and sending groups in there. Tried to declare them sponsor of terror, Obama said this would be provocative.

Obama: He believes Republican Guard of Iran is terrorist organization. The Iraq war is what has strengthened Iran. They've funded Hezbollah and Hamas, gotten centrifuges. Our policy has not worked. We cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran, would threaten Israel, our stalwart ally. We need tougher sanctions but need help from countries like Russia and China. We need to talk to people, notion that we are punishing people by not talking to them is a mistake.

McCain: Obama said he would sit down with Ahmadinejad, Chavez and (forgot??) without preconditions. Afraid Obama will give Ahmadinejad a propaganda platform. Mentions historical negotiations with China and Russia. Will sit down with anyone but has to be preconditions.

Obama: Ahmadinejad not most important person in Iran so may not be the best person. As president will meet with anyone if it will keep US safe. Kissinger, his advisor said we should meet Iran without preconditions. Doesn't mean we invite them to tea, means we don't tell them we only meet if they do what we say. Says he was called naive when he said we have to explore contacts with Iran and then Bush sent envoy to Iran discussions. In North Korea we cut off talks, and they quadrupled nuclear capacity. McCain said he wouldn't meet with the president of Spain, a NATO ally.

McCain: Says Kissinger didn't say he would approve meeting between Ahmadinejad and the president. If you meet without preconditions you legitimize comments like Israel being a stinking corpse, dangerous. North Koreans have broken agreements, have to go back to Reagan's trust but verify.

Obama: Nobody is talking about meeting without preparation. Preconditions just means we don't expect to solve every problem before we have talks. Nobody is suggesting we sit down and listen to Ahmadinejad spew insults at Israel.

McCain: (Interjects, laughing) Are we going to just let Iran say they are going to wipe out Israel and say "no we aren't"....

(Crosstalk, arguing about Kissinger.)