If all we get are speeches, hand-selected crowds and staged interviews, we are being subjected not to a presidential campaign, but to a propaganda campaign. Our nation is being sold a bill of goods, and millions of Americans are showing themselves stupid enough to buy it.It's been 24 days since Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was introduced to the nation as Sen. John McCain's choice to be a heartbeat away from leadership of the Free World. And though McCain reassures all skeptics that Palin -- who got her first passport two years ago -- is "absolutely" prepared to be president, the way campaign officials have protected her from her press corps does not necessarily suggest that they hold her ability to handle such a routine event -- a press conference -- in high regard.
The Washington Post editorialized yesterday about this, writing that "McCain's selection of an inexperienced and relatively unknown figure was unsettling, and the campaign's decision to keep her sequestered from serious interchanges with reporters and voters serves only to deepen the unease. Mr. McCain is entitled to choose the person he thinks would be best for the job. He is not entitled to keep the public from being able to make an informed assessment of that judgment. Ms. Palin's speech-making skills are impressive, but the more she repeats the same stump speech lines, the queasier we get. Nor have her answers to the gentle questioning she has encountered provided any confidence that Ms. Palin has a grasp of the issues."
McCain himself was once the most accessible presidential candidate in modern history; he once pledged to hold weekly news conferences if elected president. But he himself has gone 40 days without taking questions from his press corps, his last media availability having been on August 13 in Birmingham, Michigan.
Monday, September 22, 2008
McCain-Palin Media Avoidance Watch, Continued
Astute Observations on the Importance of Intelligent Leaders
First post:
I don't think Palin has the brainpower to be President. While McCain probably doesn't, either, he's been a Senator for a long time, and thus gets a pass. (His current dementia, however, will soon disqualify him. I hope it comes out during the debates.)Second post:
But as for Obama, as a Harvard Law School graduate, and a law review editor myself (but at a different law school), I can tell you that Obama has the intellectual chops, notwithstanding his somewhat inarticulate speaking style when he is not teleprompted. (That speaking style got a lot better tonight on 60 Minutes. I pray he drops the umms and uhhhs for the duration. They are not becoming.)
I want a President who's really smart. Who has thought about the issues for a long time, and who is tested in the political process. Having Sarah Palin (even chock full of advisors -- like Cheney and Rumsfield, I presume) sitting across the table from Putin or someone of his ilk, is terrifying to me. I guess it will be time to prepare for the Rapture, even if I am a heathen non-believer.
Has anyone noticed Obama's style. Unhurried, careful, calm. These are the attributes we want in a President. McCain is of average intelligence and, when he was mentally competent, he was angry, impetuous and divisive. Palin is simply a neophyte moron who believes the earth is 7,000 years old. We've already had the coverboy of Mad magazine as President, and it hasn't worked out too well.
I want a President who is versed in the arts and literature, who understands Western thought, religion, the place of Christianity in world history, stuff that makes up a liberal arts education. Things the English thought should be taught to prepare gentlemen for the world, even as they were living in their country estates and chasing foxes 3 or 4 times a week. From what I can tell Sarah Palin doesn't read anything except, maybe Snowmobile Monthly.
When you're really in trouble, do you hire a slacker of a lawyer who is someone you can have a drink with at the local bar, or the toughest, smartest most creative lawyer you can afford? Your answer to that question will often determine whether you are jailed or bankrupted or acquitted or absolved of liability.
In any event this discussion about Sarah Palin's "experience" is beside the point. She's not experienced. Obama isn't experienced. Nor are McCain or Biden. Neither was Abraham Lincoln. But successful Presidents have the intellectual chops. We haven't had one since Clinton. (Hard as that is for me to say since he is a Yalie.)
After the attacks on 9-11 Bush rose to the occasion and did a splendid job for a couple of months, burying the dead and rallying the world. But the first two things that happened after 9-11 really were instructive, and looking back made it clear that Iraq was on his hit list.
When he was told about the terrorist attacks, he didn't stop reading to the school children he was visiting. He kept going for another 10 minutes while it sank in. A capable President would have been out of there immediately, and in his limo in his motorcade. Instead, we have a timeless shot of Bush with a deer in the headlights look.
And, Bush's first speech talked about a crusade against those who attacked our country. Obviously Bush had no idea what the Crusades were about and it was exactly, precisely the wrong thing to say. But his advisors at the time apparently explained it to him and he stopped.
I want a President who would know what to do. That means instinct and intelligence. Experience comes as you do it. I don't want a man who jokes "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb bomb Iran" (a Freudian slip of gargantuan proportions), and who is angry and impetuous. And who demonstrates poor judgment in selecting an ignorant moron sports reporter (sorry Keith) as a running mate. I want someone who is thoughtful, calm, deliberative, and who has an idea of America's place in the world. Who doesn't have to put his hand on his heart, or wear a flag pin to love his country.
For me the choice is clear. That it is not clear to so many people I would have thought to be intelligent is frightening.
Troy Anthony Davis is Why I Oppose the Death Penalty
A man named Troy Anthony Davis is scheduled to be put to death tomorrow night, in a case that highlights everything that is wrong with how the death penalty works in this country:
Seven witnesses have recanted their testimony in a Georgia death penalty case, but the execution of convicted murderer Troy Anthony Davis is moving forward....
Defense attorneys say that at the time of the high-profile crime, witnesses were afraid. They say police coerced them into blaming Davis, who is African-American, for the murder of off-duty Savannah Police officer Mark McPhail, who was white. Since then, the majority of the witnesses have recanted, and some even point to another suspect.
...
The Southern regional director of Amnesty International, Jared Feuer, says that to this day, no one has looked at whether the evidence points to Davis' innocence or to his guilt. He says the fact that seven witnesses recanted, combined with the absence of physical evidence or a murder weapon, raises too much doubt about whether the state is executing an innocent man.
"And that's why for us, Troy Anthony Davis' case symbolizes all that is wrong with the death penalty," Feuer said. "You have questions of improper witness handling. You have procedural obstacles that get in the way of the truth. You have issues of race and, ultimately, you have a system that can't go back and correct its mistakes," he says.
Is our nation going to wake up, or simply continue our apparently inexorable slide to third world status?
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Major Disconnect on Daily Kos / Research 2000 Palin Favorability Figures
To take September 19th as an example, the R2000 poll shows 41% favorable, 46% unfavorable and 13% no opinion for Palin. But on the same date, the Diageo/Hotline poll shows figures of 50% favorable and 35% unfavorable (with presumably 15% undecided). This is a huge difference that cannot be accounted for by normal variations or differences in party ID splits. And while the Diageo/Hotline numbers are down from where they were a couple of weeks ago, they are up from earlier in the week.
The recent CBS / NY Times poll gave Palin 40% favorable and 30% unfavorable, with 15% undecided and 15% "haven't heard enough". The September 18th Pew poll likewise continues to show strong favorables for Palin.
The only reasonable conclusion I can come to is that the favorables numbers in the DK/R2K poll are messed up. This, combined with the obvious problems in their voter splits (too many Democrats, too many women and too many Hispanics, all of which help Obama) lends credence to the view that this poll, despite not being conducted by Daily Kos, is biased towards Obama.
Many Challenges and Risks Remain for Obama
I mentioned last night that this race is far from over, and promised I would outline a few of the reasons why I am very far from a celebratory mood. Here are a few of the reasons why I remain concerned about the state of the race, aside from general issues such as it still being early. These aren’t necessarily reasons to be very worried, but they are reasons to avoid complacency.
Obama Really Doesn't Have a Solid Lead
Sure, he made up lots of ground against McCain last week, but he was behind before. The national polls show him ahead, but not by very much—generally only a couple of points.
My bigger concern, though, is that we have not yet seen a swing towards Obama in the state-level polls that matches the swing in the national polls. He’s had some good results in a few states, including places where McCain has led for most of the race, but he’s also shown some weakness in traditional Democratic strongholds such as
I’m going to keep watching the state polls, but what I see right now doesn’t fill me with confidence.
Obama’s Strength on the Economy is Overstated
Pundits and Obama supporters keep assuming that because Obama swung back into the lead this week that it must have been because Americans see him as the better candidate to deal with economic issues, but the polling doesn’t really support this claim. It’s true that McCain looked confused and contradicted himself repeatedly with regard to the crisis, and this probably helped Obama in the short run, but the Democrat has a long way to go if he wants to convince Americans that he is the best man to solve the problems.
Rust Belt Vulnerability
I think Obama is vulnerable in two key states he pretty much has to take if he’s going to win this thing:
The Gun Control Issue
Obama has a serious problem here that I think too few people have discussed so far: gun rights advocates hate him, and he’s an easy target for negative advertising from such organizations. This amplifies his potential weakness in states like MI and PA, where I expect to see a massive NRA campaign against him in October.
The Palin Myth Persists
More Americans are learning about what a truly awful candidate she is every day, but the pace at which the voting populace wakes up remains slow. Many rural voters aren’t really interested in listening to reason on this issue, and so far the Obama/Biden camp has done virtually nothing in terms of trying to point out her weak points.
The McCain campain is succeeding in perpetuating the Palin Myth by hiding her from the media, and most people don’t care. There’s hope that eventually she’ll make a big enough gaffe that there will be a sea change in attitudes towards her, but hope is all it is.
Obama Needs to do Well in the Debates
Obama knows his stuff, is intelligent and has a better record on the issues than McCain. But the Arizona senator tends to come across as more confident, and he does a better job of deflecting difficult questions with non-answers and irrelevant anecdotes. Obama needs to do well in the debates, and I think he can, but it's far from a certainty.The “Swiftboating” Has Yet to Begin
I feel pretty confident that the really nasty stuff intended to take Obama down with voters on an emotional level, is being held back for the second half of October. I expect to see Jeremiah Wright dragged back into the headlines again, and I have a gut feeling that the Republicans have at least one other damning story or storyline to use against Obama, which they will trot out when it suits them best. That’s in addition to all the 527s that are going to come slithering out of the woodwork as well.
Obama: No Blank Check for Wall Street
As of now, the Bush Administration has only offered a concept with a staggering price tag, not a plan. Even if the U.S. Treasury recovers some or most of its investment over time, this initial outlay of up to $700 billion is sobering. And in return for their support, the American people must be assured that the deal reflects the basic principles of transparency, fairness, and reform.
...I hope people are listening.
First, there must be no blank check when American taxpayers are on the hook for this much money.Second, taxpayers shouldn't be spending a dime to reward CEOs on Wall Street.
Third, taxpayers should be protected and should be able to recoup this investment.
Fourth, this plan has to help homeowners stay in their homes.
Fifth, this is a global crisis, and the United States must insist that other nations join us in helping secure the financial markets.
Sixth, we need to start putting in place the rules of the road I've been calling for for years to prevent this from ever happening again.
And finally, this plan can't just be a plan for Wall Street, it has to be a plan for Main Street.
Reich: No Blank Check for Wall Street
Click through to read Reich's five suggestions. He concludes:Put yourself in the shoes of a member of Congress, including our two presidential candidates. The Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair have told you this is necessary to save the economy. If you don't agree, you risk a meltdown of the entire global financial system. Your own constituents' savings could go down with it. An election is six weeks away. Besides, in the last two days of trading, since rumors spread that the Treasury and the Fed were planning something of this sort, stock prices revived.
Now - quick -- what do you do? You have no choice but to say yes.
But you might also set some conditions on Wall Street.The public doesn't like a blank check. They think this whole bailout idea is nuts. They see fat cats on Wall Street who have raked in zillions for years, now extorting in effect $2,000 to $5,000 from every American family to make up for their own nonfeasance, malfeasance, greed, and just plain stupidity. Wall Street's request for a blank check comes at the same time most of the public is worried about their jobs and declining wages, and having enough money to pay for gas and food and health insurance, meet their car payments and mortgage payments, and save for their retirement and childrens' college education. And so the public is asking: Why should Wall Street get bailed out by me when I'm getting screwed?
So if you are a member of Congress, you just might be in a position to demand from Wall Street certain conditions in return for the blank check.
Wall Streeters may not like these conditions. Well, you should tell them that the public doesn't like the idea of bailing out Wall Street. So if Wall Street doesn't accept these conditions, it doesn't get the blank check.Damned right! Americans are pissed off and should not stand for this ridiculous outrage.
Wow. George Will Hits McCain Hard...
"I suppose the McCain campaign's hope is that when there's a big crisis, people will go for age and experience," George Will said. "The question is who in this crisis looked more presidential, calm and unflustered. It wasn't John McCain, who, as usual, substituting vehemence for coherence said let's fire somebody and picked one of the most experienced and conservative people in the administration."Yeah, Republican drones will say this is just proof of the "biased liberal media" but they're morons. My response is simple: since Republicans now rely on propagandists like Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh for their "news", reality has a liberal bias.
Cokie Roberts compared McCain's optimism about the American economy – he said the "fundamentals of our economy are strong" days before the financial fallout -- to former Republican President Herbert Hoover.
Hoover also praised the economy after bank failures and job layoffs, saying "the fundamental business of the country… is on a sound and prosperous basis."
The Great Depression followed soon after.
"He’s a Republican and whenever Republicans get into this kind of mess… the specter of Herbert Hoover comes out to haunt them," Roberts said.
Sam Donaldson cited McCain’s past voting record as contradictory to his current claims of tough regulation and wondered if the senator was "getting his talking points confused."
"I think the question of McCain’s age is back on the table," Donaldson said.
Palin Driving Swing Voters to Obama in Florida
Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin.
"The one thing that frightens me more than anything else are the ideologues. We've seen too many," said 80-year-old Air Force veteran Donn Spegal, a lifelong Republican from St. Petersburg, who sees McCain's new running mate as the kind of "wedge issue" social conservative that has made him disenchanted with his party.
"I'm truly offended by Palin,'' said Republican Philinia Lehr, 37, of Largo, a full-time mother with a nursing degree who voted for George Bush in 2004. Like Palin, she has five children and she doesn't buy that the Alaska governor can adequately balance her family and the vice presidency.
...Of the 11 undecided voters participating in the discussion one recent evening at the Times — four Republicans, five Democrats, and two registered to no party — only two Republican men applauded the selection of Palin.
...
"That was almost insulting," Democrat Rhonda Laris of Temple Terrace, another strong Clinton backer skeptical of Obama, said of the Palin pick. "Do they think we're really stupid? … I'm definitely leaning toward the Democratic side now. Sarah Palin scares ... me."
Hypocrisy Alert
SNL (Superbly) Mocks John McCain's "Truth-Enhanced" Campaign Ads
Guess What, Obama Fans? It's *Still* Only September
In early September, John McCain was riding high in the polls on the strength of his post-convention bounce and shiny new running mate, and Obama supporters were down in the dumps. There was much consternation and wringing of hands, people wondering why Obama was losing, lots of finger-pointing and armchair quarterbacking going on, and people calling for dramatic and sometimes outright silly changes in the campaign. The over-reaction was so extreme that it even prompted me to write an essay calling on folks to stop panicking, because I knew that what we were seeing was temporary.
Now, just two weeks later, the pendulum has swung back again. The market meltdown of this past week has put the economy back on the front burner, the conventions are fading into the distance, and more Americans are finding out every day that Sarah Palin is clueless, corrupt and dishonest. Obama has dramatically taken the lead again in national polls, and all is right once more in Obamaville.
Or is it?
The problem I see now is that the pendulum seems to have swung back too far. Where two weeks ago many Obama supporters were despondent, now they seem almost exultant. I keep hearing comments like “the election is over” and “we’ve won” and “Obama landslide”. The same folks who, just a few days ago, were calling for David Plouffe’s head on a pike, now are ready to put the champagne on ice for him.
Well, you can boil down all of the arguments I made in my “Don’t Panic” article into two simple points: first, trends don’t continue forever; and second, it’s still early. I said back then that McCain wouldn’t continue to get a big bump from his convention and from Palin forever—but the same applies to Obama’s boost due to other factors like the markets. And I said back then not to panic because it was only September—well guess what, it’s still only September.
Absent some truly dramatic faux pas on the part of McCain, I don’t see Obama running away with this election. While Obama is a strong candidate in many ways, he also has some very important weaknesses. Tomorrow I will try to write up some of my concerns about the challenges I see still remaining ahead of Obama, and possible places where he could run into problems. But trust me, the Republicans are hardly packing this one in.
In closing, it’s obviously true that Obama is in a better position now; naturally, those who support him would rather see him a few points ahead than a few points behind. And, of course, it’s much better to be happy than depressed. But don’t set yourself up for disappointment, or that unhappy feeling could return in a hurry. Remember that there’s still a long way to go, including all of the debates—so while there’s certainly reason to be optimistic, try to keep it a cautious optimism.
Saturday, September 20, 2008
What Happened to 'Country First'?
Wish I could answer these very valid questions, but I can't -- I keep asking them myself.To put it mildly, I've watched the McCain campaign with growing concern. I watched as he was nominated almost by default and got a lukewarm reception by everyone but Cindy. The Republicans were going to lose anyway, so who cared? I watched with half an eye as he bumbled his way along the campaign trail, but I mostly watched the other side's exciting primary battles culminating in the electrifying Obama speech in Denver.When the main players were in place, the match was on, but I didnt really expect too much electricity. Silly me. I didnt want 'four more years' so my mind was pretty much made up, and figured there were enough sane people who could see the obvious damage of the Bush administration and felt the way I did. It was a no-brainer after all. When I watched parts of the Republican Convention, I didnt expect too much....Then I watched as McCain cynically selected Palin to be 'one step away' to temporarily boost interest in his sagging candidacy. The next couple weeks I watched in horror as her interesting but shallow persona caught on and made the political choice I thought obvious into something that was too close to call - or worse. What the heck had just happened?What happened to 'country first'? I've watched McCain/Palin ignore issues, make mistakes, continually lie, and hide from the press. They are making a mockery out of the selection process for the highest offices in the land. I've watched this past week as daily it's became increasingly clear that McCain/Palin simply are not fit in any significant way to lead the country in such a perilous time.I dont blame McCain for not putting country first. When things get tough, he's always put himself first. From insisting on being a pilot when he kept crashing planes, to dumping his first wife for a rich, pretty young thing. And of course when he was a POW he survived by doing whatever he had to do. He is merely doing that again.
I dont blame Palin either. She is merely a clueless, opportunistic pawn.So who do I blame for not putting country first? The Republicans. Not only millions of Republican voters who cant see though this sham, but moreso higher level Republicans in the know who obviously realize McCain/Palin are not fit for the job. We see a handful of columnists being critical, and an occasional politician or talking head, but far too few of the many others who must know and who must also be as afraid as I am.Instead of quietly whispering that McCain doesnt have 'the right temperment', or simply not helping the campaign much, why are they not stepping to the front of the line to shout what they really must also believe? Why are they not putting country first? Is winning more important than country?Since Republicans have wrapped themselves deep in the folds of 'patriotism', why are they more faithful to being a Republican than being an American?
Alaskan Rep Les Gara Describes Republican Stall and Coverup Efforts in Alaska
Since Monday the McCain camp has stepped up its personal attacks against Alaskans. They've continued their D.C.-style tactics against neighbors in this small state. The game plan is to find an excuse to stop our Legislature's Troopergate investigation, and hide evidence McCain's folks really don't want to surface before November's election. It's been a little Karl Rove, and parts Laurel and Hardy.
...
Every day this week McCain operatives have sung the same tune. Today a guy with an East Coast accent, who knows nothing about Alaska, stood in front of a McCain-Palin banner to lead the attacks against people he doesn't know. At press conferences on Monday and Tuesday campaign staffer Megan Stapleton spit vitriol to repeat her argument that this investigation is really a "Democratic" attack on Governor Palin. See, that's easier than just saying their VP has reneged on her promise to testify. It's easier than just saying they don't want anyone testifying before the November election. It's easier than admitting they are stonewalling a legislative investigation. Oh -- and I know they hate partisan stuff. Yesterday 5 Republican legislators -- all allies of Governor Palin, all supporters of the McCain campaign, filed a lawsuit against the Legislature to stop the investigation.
Here are a few things MCCain's operatives failed to say. There are a few small facts that make it hard to style this as a Democratic investigation. One is that Alaska is a Republican State. We have a Republican Governor and a Legislature of 34 Republicans and 26 Democrats. This summer the Legislature's Legislative Council voted 12-0 (8 Republicans and 4 Democrats) to hire an investigator, and appointed Democratic Senator Hollis French, a well-respected former prosecutor, to find an investigator.
...
Those Swift boat ads taught the McCain folks that if you say something untrue enough times, it can stick. My favorite moment of the week came when Governor Palin's attorneys filed a motion to dismiss Palin's ethics complaint against herself. Stay with me. Her attorneys have been buying the peyote, not me. See, on August 29 they needed to find a way to stop the Legislature's investigation. They tried asking the Republican leaders to call it off, and take one for the team. But the Senate President and others honorably said no. So they came up with an argument that the State Personnel Board -- 3 people appointed by Governor Palin and her Republican predecessor Frank Murkowski - had "exclusive jurisdiction" to investigate wrongdoing by the Governor.
The Legislature wasn't amused. So Governor Palin then filed a complaint against herself. That, they said, put "jurisdiction" in the hands of their friends at the Personnel Board.
...All we can hope for is that members of the press will abide by what's taught in journalism school. Not to repeat the spin of political operatives without reporting the truth. Not to write "he said she said" stories, and pretend the truth is somewhere in the middle. But to report the facts. No matter how you spin it, Governor Palin promised to comply with this Legislative Investigation. McCain's folks got her to change her position. And the Legislature that voted for the investigation did so on a bi-partisan basis. End of story. End of headline.
Over the next few days McCain's folks will try to get local legislators to step in line, out of party loyalty, and reverse their vote to investigate Troopergate. But many local Republicans, like Senate President Lyda Green, have so far refused to play those politics. Stay for more from McCain's Campaign for "Change." They've tried to change the truth. They've succeeded at changing Governor Palin's promise to comply with this investigation. Let's see what they'll change next.
Are Americans going to sit and watch this nation turn into a banana republic?
McCain Continues to Prove Palin is Unready to Lead and He is Unfit for Office
At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, the advisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.McCain knows how unready Palin is for high office, which is why he continues to shield her
McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely on the defensive.
The wrangling was chiefly between the McCain-Palin camp and the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which is sponsoring the forums.
Commission members wanted a relaxed format that included time for unpredictable questioning and challenges between the vice-presidential candidates. Last week, it rejected a proposal from advisers to Ms. Palin and Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee, for few if any unfettered exchanges. Advisers to Mr. Biden say they were comfortable with either format.
from anyone who might challenge her. The media is STILL not making enough of a deal over this. McCain should have his feet held to the fire as long as he keeps treating a potential president like a 9-year-old girl being put in front of cameras for the first time.
That Was Quick
"So let me get this straight -- he wants to run health care like they've been running Wall Street," Obama told the audience. "Well, Senator, I know some folks on Main Street who aren't going to think that's such a good idea."
...On Social Security, Obama said, McCain's support for privatization would leave senior citizens at risk at a time when the stock market has plummeted. "I know Senator McCain is talking about a 'casino culture' on Wall Street -- but the fact is, he's the one who wants to gamble with your life savings and that is not going to happen when I'm president of the United States."
Poll Details and Observations: CBS / NY Times Poll of September 17, 2008
As we head into the stretch of the 2008 presidential race, we are bombarded with poll results on a daily basis. But usually we only see the “bottom line” numbers: what percentage of voters as a whole favor each candidate. These are obviously the most important figures, but while they tell us the general state of the race, they don’t provide much information about each candidates’ strengths and weaknesses, and where their messages are penetrating or being rejected.
To get the more detailed and useful information in polls, it is necessary to go beyond the bottom line and number and look into the poll internals. The two most important internals are the answers to specific questions about the candidate, and crosstabs, which show how answers to questions break down by political affiliation, gender, race and other factors.
Since I am always curious about what’s going on behind the scenes, I’ve decided I will regularly dig into poll internals and report my observations. Polling firms vary greatly in terms of whether or not they release their internals. Some do not, and others do only for subscribers, but some provide full information for their polls. One of these is the CBS / NY Times poll, which has a large number of questions and answers.
I’ve decided to use the CBS/NYT September 17th poll (based on polling done from Sept 12-16) for this analysis. This poll shows Obama leading McCain 48%-43% among registered voters, and 49%-44% among likely voters.
Note that while I am obviously partisan in this election, I do make an effort to be objective in my observations in this sort of analysis.
Here are some of the more noteworthy items I found in this poll’s internals.
1. The biggest swing in overall support between this poll and the one taken on September 8 was in independent voters: they had previously been 55-29 in McCain’s favor, but are now 46-41 for Obama. Frankly, this strikes me as an excessively large shift and makes me suspect that something is off a bit here. Also a bit strange is Democrat support for McCain increasing from 6% to 10%, though this could just be noise.
2. Both McCain and Obama are seen as bringing change to
3. On “maverickness”, Obama actually does better than McCain. He is seen as a “different type of Democrat” by 47%, whereas 48% see him as “typical”; McCain’s figures are 40% and 57% respectively. Note that Kerry’s scores were 30% and 55% in July 2004, likely one of many important reasons why Kerry lost.
4. Obama continues to consistently lead in the “soft” appeal type questions, such as who can you relate to and who understands voters’ needs and problems. On the latter question he trounces McCain 60%-33%, which is a bit surprising. McCain has actually lost ground in this area.
5. Conversely, McCain continues to beat Obama soundly in his strong suit areas: experience and military leadership. A plurality of voters now believe Obama is prepared to be president, but only barely: 48% to 46%. He has a lot more work to do in this area. Only 26% feel that Obama would be very likely to be an effective commander-in-chief, while 52% feel McCain would. Obama is not making any headway in this area, and it’s a serious weakness for him.
6. Much has been made about how Sarah Palin increased enthusiasm among McCain voters, and it is true that he has improved in this area, but he still trails Obama by a large margin. 61% of Obama supporters are enthusiastic, while 23% have reservations (difference of 38%); McCain’s figures are 47% and 37% (difference of 10%).
7. The “McCain is out of touch” meme seems to be succeeding with independent voters, but the “McCain is not a plain talker” meme is not nearly as effective; in fact, Obama scores worse on this than McCain. Independents say Obama understands their needs and problems by a 57%-35% margin, but McCain scores just 48%-45%. Asked if he says what he believes or not, independents rate McCain 58%-38% but Obama gets an anemic 47%-49%.
8. Many people have tried to claim that Obama’s effort to tie McCain to Bush is not effective: the numbers suggest otherwise. A full 46% believe McCain would continue Bush policies (up from 42% in a prior poll), including 38% of independents.
9. On VP picks, voters see McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin clearly: a whopping 75% of them said he chose her to try to win the election, and only 17% because she’s well qualified. Biden’s scores are 57% for qualifications and 31% to help Obama win.
10. In terms of readiness to serve as president, 65% say Biden would be and 24% say he would not. But for Palin, the numbers are 33% “qualified” and 62% “concerned”. This may be part of why Obama has regained some of his lead. Even 32% of McCain supporters are concerned about Palin. The Alaskan governor is now considered by 42% to be prepared to be VP while 52% say she is not; an earlier September poll had 47% saying prepared and 42% unprepared – a bad trend for McCain.
11. Biden’s net favorability is +21% with a high 45% undecided; this is largely unchanged since he was picked. Palin has a net +10% with 30% undecided, down from +22% in a September 8 poll. Independents still have a +14% favorability rating of Palin, which is better news for McCain.
12. If McCain intended the Palin pick to appeal to Hillary Clinton voters, he failed miserably (no surprise to me or most other observers, of course). Palin’s net favorability among former
13. Another interesting but unsurprising observation: 2% of McCain supporters said they were “angry” about Obama’s selection of Joe Biden; 20% of Obama supporters said this about McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin.
14. So far, at least, Palin is not being penalized very much by voters for allegations of misconduct as governor or claims about her honesty – very few voters state these as reasons for disliking her.
15. Palin is seen as someone voters can relate to by a 55% to 42% margin; this is down from 60%-34% in a prior poll.
16. A near majority (48%) of Americans rate the economy and jobs as the most important election issue, including 58% of Democrats, 41% of Republicans and 40% of independents. Voters have confidence in Obama to deal with the economy by a 60%-39% margin; for McCain the figures are 53%-46%.
17. Neither candidate is having much luck convincing Americans that their taxes will go down if he’s elected, but Obama is failing miserably on this count. 34% of Americans think McCain will raise their taxes, but 49% think Obama will. Conversely, 15% think Obama will lower their taxes, and just 8% feel this about McCain. Obama does much worse here among independents than McCain: 53% think Obama will raise taxes and 12% lower them, compared to 31%-13% scores for McCain. This may well be Obama’s single biggest failure to communicate of the election (or McCain’s greatest success).
18. On
19. 62% of Republicans approve of the job George W. Bush is doing? Really? Um. Wow.
The Real Reason for the Troopergate Coverup: Palin's Lies
This woman needs to be exposed as the dangerous, dishonest, power-hungry fraud that she is. BEFORE the election.Fighting back against allegations she may have fired her then-Public Safety Commissioner, Walt Monegan, for refusing to go along with a personal vendetta, Palin on Monday argued in a legal filing that she fired Monegan because he had a "rogue mentality" and was bucking her administration's directives.
"The last straw," her lawyer argued, came when he planned a trip to Washington, D.C., to seek federal funds for an aggressive anti-sexual-violence program. The project, expected to cost from $10 million to $20 million a year for five years, would have been the first of its kind in Alaska, which leads the nation in reported forcible rape.
The McCain-Palin campaign echoed the charge in a press release it distributed Monday, concurrent with Palin's legal filing. "Mr. Monegan persisted in planning to make the unauthorized lobbying trip to D.C.," the release stated.
But the governor's staff authorized the trip, according to an internal travel document from the Department of Public Safety, released Friday in response to an open records request.
It's the Judgment, Stupid
In the wake of the collapse, McCain came out with his proposal - a 9/11 type commission to study what happened and report back. It probably wasn't the best of responses, but at least it wasn't rash. Very un-McCain.This nation is in deep, deep trouble if this undisciplined, careless man gets into the White House. The Republicans should be ashamed for even nominating him.That's until it was mocked.
That's when old-school "McNasty" kicked in. About a day later, what was his answer? Fire SEC Chairman Chris Cox (even though the President can't do that). According to McCain, "If I were [sic] President today, I would fire him."
Boy, that would be a great signal to send to Wall Street. In the middle of the biggest financial crisis we've had in decades, McCain would dump the SEC Chair, leaving the seat to a caretaker until he could nominate and get confirmed a new one. Yeah, because THAT wouldn't freak the entire market the F out, by sending the signal that the Federal Government was in complete panic mode. I mean, this is the same Wall Street that goes into freefall when the Fed Chairman even whispers the word "recession."
But, McCain didn't care. Shoot first, deal with the fallout later. Just like working for a war in Iraq while the Trade Center was still smoldering from the attacks that came from Afghanistan/Pakistan.