Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Favorability Update: McCain and Palin Continue to Slide

A couple of days ago I posted an article and chart showing the rapidly dropping favorability ratings of both John McCain and Sarah Palin, based on data from the Daily Kos / Research 2000 daily tracking poll. (See my comments on that post if you're going to try the "it's from DK so it can't be trusted" bit.)

I just updated my graph based on two more days of polling figures, and they show that the divergence between the Democrats' and the Republicans' favorables is continuing:

Again, these numbers are "net favorability" for each candidate, meaning, what percentage of those polled have a positive view of them, minus how many have a negative view.

As I surmised on the 15th, these numbers tend to be leading indicators for poll movements, and we are seeing those occur now. I would expect the McCain figures to bounce back; I think most of his hit here is due to his negative campaigning, and if he stops that, he should recover.

But frankly, despite Palin's net favorability now being negative, I think her figures have far more room to drop, at least in the short run. Simply put, more and more people are figuring out every day that she's a dishonest, power-hungry fraud -- and her continued cowardice in avoiding the media almost three weeks after selection makes people nervous about her competence.


pluckon said...

Please keep updating this graph. It's really interesting!

Gianna said...

Thanks for the interesting graph, Charles.

A couple weeks ago someone at 538 compared the Palin vp pick to Wile E. Coyote having run off the edge of a cliff, still hanging in the air, with legs spinning furiously...

Looks like the delayed but predicted fall is underway.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Thanks, I'll keep updating it every couple of days.

Gianna, I think that's pretty apt. I've maintained since the day he chose her that it was a disastrous decision and I'm sticking with it.