Showing posts with label first presidential debate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label first presidential debate. Show all posts
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Why Voters Thought Obama Won
An excellent analysis from Nate Silver, contrasting the gap between whom the pundits thought won the debate and the very different answers from voters. Highlights:
TPM has the internals of the CNN poll of debate-watchers, which had Obama winning overall by a margin of 51-38. The poll suggests that Obama is opening up a gap on connectedness, while closing a gap on readiness.Worth a full read.
Specifically, by a 62-32 margin, voters thought that Obama was “more in touch with the needs and problems of people like you”. This is a gap that has no doubt grown because of the financial crisis of recent days. But it also grew because Obama was actually speaking to middle class voters. Per the transcript, McCain never once mentioned the phrase “middle class” (Obama did so three times). And Obama’s eye contact was directly with the camera, i.e. the voters at home. McCain seemed to be speaking literally to the people in the room in Mississippi, but figuratively to the punditry. It is no surprise that a small majority of pundits seemed to have thought that McCain won, even when the polls indicated otherwise; the pundits were his target audience.
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Meanwhile, voters thought that Obama “seemed to be the stronger leader” by a 49-43 margin, reversing a traditional area of McCain strength. And voters thought that the candidates were equally likely to be able to handle the job of president if elected.
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McCain’s essential problem is that his fundamental strength – his experience -- is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.
EDIT: The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Quick Reaction Poll Suggests Obama Did Well
Independents think Obama won:
These numbers are a win for Obama, regardless of what they thought of McCain.
CBS News and Knowledge Networks conducted a nationally representative poll of approximately 500 uncommitted voters reacting to the debate in the minutes after it happened.
These figures are still preliminary and could change as more respondents complete the survey. But here's what we have so far:
Forty percent of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. Twenty-two percent thought John McCain won. Thirty-eight percent saw it as a draw.
Forty-six percent of uncommitted voters said their opinion of Obama got better tonight.
Sixty-eight percent of uncommitted voters think Obama would make the right decisions about the economy. Forty-one percent think McCain would.
Forty-nine percent of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. Fifty-five percent think McCain would.
These numbers are a win for Obama, regardless of what they thought of McCain.
Overall First Impressions on the First Debate
Executive Summary: *Yawn*. Overall a rather boring debate, no real zingers or winners or gaffes. On the whole I think Obama won slightly on presentation and demeanor, McCain won on subject matters. Obama will benefit more because he had more to gain.
Random observations:
1. Where was Mccain's lapel pin?
2. Obama looked into the camera many times, McCain not even once.
3. McCain seemed agitated and passionate, Obama cool as a cucumber. I think both could have done better in going the opposite direction.
4. Obama did very well on Iran I thought. McCain did better on Russia.
5. Obama really blew it at the end when he didn't respond to McCain's accusations and all the "I heart veterans" stuff. No mention of the GI bill? Why not?
6. Obama clearly was trying to shift the discussion to domestic issues.
7. McCain seemed skittish but overall in control. I'm not sure if voters wondering about his recent behavior will be comforted more by the latter or worried more about the former.
8. Obama was confident and that should reassure some who were concerned about his ability to hold his own on these issues. He was nothing like what he was at Saddleback.
9. McCain spoke in old talking points far too much. In fact, when he said "Let us win" in his bracelet story, I said it along with him because I have heard it so many times.
Bottom Line: Both did fine but the net edge IMO is slightly to Obama simply because Obama had a lot more to gain here than Mccain did. There are millions of voters who want to vote for Obama but were concerned about his abilities and this should make many of them feel a bit better. This won't change any decided voters' minds either way.
Random observations:
1. Where was Mccain's lapel pin?
2. Obama looked into the camera many times, McCain not even once.
3. McCain seemed agitated and passionate, Obama cool as a cucumber. I think both could have done better in going the opposite direction.
4. Obama did very well on Iran I thought. McCain did better on Russia.
5. Obama really blew it at the end when he didn't respond to McCain's accusations and all the "I heart veterans" stuff. No mention of the GI bill? Why not?
6. Obama clearly was trying to shift the discussion to domestic issues.
7. McCain seemed skittish but overall in control. I'm not sure if voters wondering about his recent behavior will be comforted more by the latter or worried more about the former.
8. Obama was confident and that should reassure some who were concerned about his ability to hold his own on these issues. He was nothing like what he was at Saddleback.
9. McCain spoke in old talking points far too much. In fact, when he said "Let us win" in his bracelet story, I said it along with him because I have heard it so many times.
Bottom Line: Both did fine but the net edge IMO is slightly to Obama simply because Obama had a lot more to gain here than Mccain did. There are millions of voters who want to vote for Obama but were concerned about his abilities and this should make many of them feel a bit better. This won't change any decided voters' minds either way.
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #8 - Likelihood of Another 9/11 Attack
McCain: Much less than it was the day after 9/11. Safer nation but far from safe. He and Lieberman wanted to form commission to look into 9/11. Got most of reforms written into legislation. Bipartisan effort. Need better job of human intelligence. Trained interrogators so we don't torture. Knows allies and can work more closely. Probably had largest reorganization
of government because of recommendations. Long way to go before America is safe.
Obama: Safer in some ways. Done work in border security. Need to harden chemical sites. Risk to ports. Worry is not nuclear missile but nuclear suitcase. Spending billions of dollars on missile defence, says we need it but we need more money on preventing nuclear proliferation. Need to focus on root cause of Al Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan. How we are perceived matters, will restore our standing in the world. Less respected now. Because of things we have done, lot of work to restore sense of America as a shining beacon.
McCain: Obama said missile defence had to be proven. Still doesn't get it that if we fail in Iraq it encourages Al Qaida. His plan would lead to defence and loss of our sacrifices we've made.
Obama: Administration and McCain have been solely focused on Iraq. Bin Laden still out there. China has $1 trillion because we spent money in Iraq. Viewed everything through this single lens. Brings up veterans affairs (not really covered in this debate?) President has to have broader strategic vision.
McCain: Involved in every security challenge in last 25 years. Doesn't believe Obama has knowledge or experience and has made wrong decisions in a number of areas. Seen stubbornness before, cling to belief that surge has not succeeded. He loves the veterans and will take care of them. He has judgment to keep nation safe and secure.
Obama: Closing statement, talking to camera. Father came from Kenya because America was place to be. Must send message to the world that we are going to do what we need to do.
McCain: Knows how to heal wounds of war, and how to deal with enemies and friends.
of government because of recommendations. Long way to go before America is safe.
Obama: Safer in some ways. Done work in border security. Need to harden chemical sites. Risk to ports. Worry is not nuclear missile but nuclear suitcase. Spending billions of dollars on missile defence, says we need it but we need more money on preventing nuclear proliferation. Need to focus on root cause of Al Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan. How we are perceived matters, will restore our standing in the world. Less respected now. Because of things we have done, lot of work to restore sense of America as a shining beacon.
McCain: Obama said missile defence had to be proven. Still doesn't get it that if we fail in Iraq it encourages Al Qaida. His plan would lead to defence and loss of our sacrifices we've made.
Obama: Administration and McCain have been solely focused on Iraq. Bin Laden still out there. China has $1 trillion because we spent money in Iraq. Viewed everything through this single lens. Brings up veterans affairs (not really covered in this debate?) President has to have broader strategic vision.
McCain: Involved in every security challenge in last 25 years. Doesn't believe Obama has knowledge or experience and has made wrong decisions in a number of areas. Seen stubbornness before, cling to belief that surge has not succeeded. He loves the veterans and will take care of them. He has judgment to keep nation safe and secure.
Obama: Closing statement, talking to camera. Father came from Kenya because America was place to be. Must send message to the world that we are going to do what we need to do.
McCain: Knows how to heal wounds of war, and how to deal with enemies and friends.
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #7 - Relationship with Russia
Obama: Have to evaluate based on recent happenings, resurgent Russia is a problem. Georgia situation unacceptable. Must have unified alliance that they cannot be a 21st century power and act like 20th century dictatorship. Affirm fledgling democracies. Countries like Georgia and Ukraine can join NATO, action plan to bring them in. Cannot return to Cold War posture with Russia. Loose nukes could fall into hands of Al Qaida. He's worked on this. Don't deal with Russia by staring into eyes and seeing soul, work from our interests. Recent behavior needs sharp response.
McCain: Obama's first response was that both sides should show restraint. Naivete on Obama's part. Oil causing KGB led country. Need to bolster friends and allies. Georgia had to do with energy. Former Soviet countries concerned about Russian actions. Russia must understand that we support inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Russians are in violation of their ceasefire agreement. Poster of Putin in Georgia, they were waiting for opportunity. Watch Ukraine.
Obama: Agrees with McCain mostly, says he did reply forcefully about Russia. Was first to call for rebuilding Georgia's economy, called for $1 billion for Georgia. We must have foresight and anticipate some of these problems. In April he warned administration about Russian peacekeepers in Georgia. Need energy strategy to deal not just with Russia but also other rogue nations. We need to drill but we also need clean coal, nuclear. McCain voted 23 times against alternative energy.
Lehrer tries to move on.
McCain and Obama arguing about nuclear energy. McCain says he opposes nuclear storage, Obama says he doesn't.
McCain: Obama's first response was that both sides should show restraint. Naivete on Obama's part. Oil causing KGB led country. Need to bolster friends and allies. Georgia had to do with energy. Former Soviet countries concerned about Russian actions. Russia must understand that we support inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Russians are in violation of their ceasefire agreement. Poster of Putin in Georgia, they were waiting for opportunity. Watch Ukraine.
Obama: Agrees with McCain mostly, says he did reply forcefully about Russia. Was first to call for rebuilding Georgia's economy, called for $1 billion for Georgia. We must have foresight and anticipate some of these problems. In April he warned administration about Russian peacekeepers in Georgia. Need energy strategy to deal not just with Russia but also other rogue nations. We need to drill but we also need clean coal, nuclear. McCain voted 23 times against alternative energy.
Lehrer tries to move on.
McCain and Obama arguing about nuclear energy. McCain says he opposes nuclear storage, Obama says he doesn't.
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #6 - What is Threat of Iran
McCain: Iran getting nuclear weapon is existential threat to Israel. Cannot allow a second Holocaust. Proposed league of democracies. Concern about Russia. Could impose meaningful sanctions on Iran that would help. They have a lousy government so have lousy economy. We can affect Iranian behavior. Have no doubt that Iran continues to try to get nuclear weapon. Putting the most lethal IEDs into Iraq and sending groups in there. Tried to declare them sponsor of terror, Obama said this would be provocative.
Obama: He believes Republican Guard of Iran is terrorist organization. The Iraq war is what has strengthened Iran. They've funded Hezbollah and Hamas, gotten centrifuges. Our policy has not worked. We cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran, would threaten Israel, our stalwart ally. We need tougher sanctions but need help from countries like Russia and China. We need to talk to people, notion that we are punishing people by not talking to them is a mistake.
McCain: Obama said he would sit down with Ahmadinejad, Chavez and (forgot??) without preconditions. Afraid Obama will give Ahmadinejad a propaganda platform. Mentions historical negotiations with China and Russia. Will sit down with anyone but has to be preconditions.
Obama: Ahmadinejad not most important person in Iran so may not be the best person. As president will meet with anyone if it will keep US safe. Kissinger, his advisor said we should meet Iran without preconditions. Doesn't mean we invite them to tea, means we don't tell them we only meet if they do what we say. Says he was called naive when he said we have to explore contacts with Iran and then Bush sent envoy to Iran discussions. In North Korea we cut off talks, and they quadrupled nuclear capacity. McCain said he wouldn't meet with the president of Spain, a NATO ally.
McCain: Says Kissinger didn't say he would approve meeting between Ahmadinejad and the president. If you meet without preconditions you legitimize comments like Israel being a stinking corpse, dangerous. North Koreans have broken agreements, have to go back to Reagan's trust but verify.
Obama: Nobody is talking about meeting without preparation. Preconditions just means we don't expect to solve every problem before we have talks. Nobody is suggesting we sit down and listen to Ahmadinejad spew insults at Israel.
McCain: (Interjects, laughing) Are we going to just let Iran say they are going to wipe out Israel and say "no we aren't"....
(Crosstalk, arguing about Kissinger.)
Obama: He believes Republican Guard of Iran is terrorist organization. The Iraq war is what has strengthened Iran. They've funded Hezbollah and Hamas, gotten centrifuges. Our policy has not worked. We cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran, would threaten Israel, our stalwart ally. We need tougher sanctions but need help from countries like Russia and China. We need to talk to people, notion that we are punishing people by not talking to them is a mistake.
McCain: Obama said he would sit down with Ahmadinejad, Chavez and (forgot??) without preconditions. Afraid Obama will give Ahmadinejad a propaganda platform. Mentions historical negotiations with China and Russia. Will sit down with anyone but has to be preconditions.
Obama: Ahmadinejad not most important person in Iran so may not be the best person. As president will meet with anyone if it will keep US safe. Kissinger, his advisor said we should meet Iran without preconditions. Doesn't mean we invite them to tea, means we don't tell them we only meet if they do what we say. Says he was called naive when he said we have to explore contacts with Iran and then Bush sent envoy to Iran discussions. In North Korea we cut off talks, and they quadrupled nuclear capacity. McCain said he wouldn't meet with the president of Spain, a NATO ally.
McCain: Says Kissinger didn't say he would approve meeting between Ahmadinejad and the president. If you meet without preconditions you legitimize comments like Israel being a stinking corpse, dangerous. North Koreans have broken agreements, have to go back to Reagan's trust but verify.
Obama: Nobody is talking about meeting without preparation. Preconditions just means we don't expect to solve every problem before we have talks. Nobody is suggesting we sit down and listen to Ahmadinejad spew insults at Israel.
McCain: (Interjects, laughing) Are we going to just let Iran say they are going to wipe out Israel and say "no we aren't"....
(Crosstalk, arguing about Kissinger.)
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #5 - Afghanistan, More Troops and if So How Many and When?
Obama: Need more troops, cannot separate Afghanistan from Iraq. Would send two or three additional brigades. We have four times as many troops in Iraq where nobody had anything to do with Iraq, strategic mistake. Must deal with Al Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Press Afghan government, deal with poppy trade.
McCain: Won't repeat mistake that he regrets which was to wash hands of region after Soviets. Not prepared to cut off aid to Pakistan so not ready to threaten them. You don't announce strikes out loud, you work with the government. Area on border has not been governed since days of Alexander the Great. Need new troops but also new strategy. Not just addition of troops, he knows how to work with Pakistan.
Obama: Nobody talked about attacking Pakistan. If the U.S. has Al Qaida lieutenants in Pakistan and they are unable or unwilling to attack we should take them out. We need to be prudent in what we say but mentions him "singing songs about bombing Iran". We alienated the Pakistani population, had 20th century mindset about dictator, wasted money, they weren't going after Al Qaida.
McCain: Responds about bombing Iran, talking about his record. When he was a new congressman in 1983 voted against sending Marines to Lebanon. Supported Gulf War I and Bosnia and Kosovo. Opposed turning force in Somalia into peacemaking force. He has a record of making tough decisions. Someone at a townhall asked him to wear her son's bracelet, she asked him to make sure his death wasn't in vain. "We don't want defeat." Hard for military to recover from failure.
Obama: Also has a bracelet. She asked him to make sure another mother isn't going through what she's going through. No US soldier ever dies in vain. Our troops have performed brilliantly. Are we making good judgments. We took our eye off Afghanistan and folks who perpetrated 9/11. Nobody is talking about defeat in Iraq. McCain has not consistently been concerned about Afghanistan, he said we could try to "muddle through" Afghanistan.
McCain: Would think he would have visited Afghanistan. Has been there and knows what needs to be done. Opposes set date for withdrawal, will cause defeat in Iraq.
McCain: Won't repeat mistake that he regrets which was to wash hands of region after Soviets. Not prepared to cut off aid to Pakistan so not ready to threaten them. You don't announce strikes out loud, you work with the government. Area on border has not been governed since days of Alexander the Great. Need new troops but also new strategy. Not just addition of troops, he knows how to work with Pakistan.
Obama: Nobody talked about attacking Pakistan. If the U.S. has Al Qaida lieutenants in Pakistan and they are unable or unwilling to attack we should take them out. We need to be prudent in what we say but mentions him "singing songs about bombing Iran". We alienated the Pakistani population, had 20th century mindset about dictator, wasted money, they weren't going after Al Qaida.
McCain: Responds about bombing Iran, talking about his record. When he was a new congressman in 1983 voted against sending Marines to Lebanon. Supported Gulf War I and Bosnia and Kosovo. Opposed turning force in Somalia into peacemaking force. He has a record of making tough decisions. Someone at a townhall asked him to wear her son's bracelet, she asked him to make sure his death wasn't in vain. "We don't want defeat." Hard for military to recover from failure.
Obama: Also has a bracelet. She asked him to make sure another mother isn't going through what she's going through. No US soldier ever dies in vain. Our troops have performed brilliantly. Are we making good judgments. We took our eye off Afghanistan and folks who perpetrated 9/11. Nobody is talking about defeat in Iraq. McCain has not consistently been concerned about Afghanistan, he said we could try to "muddle through" Afghanistan.
McCain: Would think he would have visited Afghanistan. Has been there and knows what needs to be done. Opposes set date for withdrawal, will cause defeat in Iraq.
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #4 - What Can We Learn from Iraq
McCain: We can't go in with failed strategy, he went to Iraq in 2003, we needed to change course, now we are winning thanks to a good general. Consequences of defeat would have been a wider war, might have had to go back. We will come back with victory.
Obama: First question is whether we should have gone into Iraq in the first place. Stood up and opposed because of dangers, and because we hadn't finished job in Afghanistan, thought it would be a distraction. Wishes he had been wrong for the sake of the country. Lost money and lives, Al Qaida is resurgent, we took eye off ball. Should never hesitate to use military force but use it wisely.
(Subjective: Obama seems to be saying more new material than McCain.)
McCain: Next president doesn't have to address whether we should have gone in or not. Next one has to decide when and if we go and what we leave behind. Says Obama opposed surge and mentions Obama went overseas only after 900 days. Talking about Obama's committee and that he never met with Patraeus.
Obama: Proud of his VP pick, issues don't go through his subcommittee, go through committee as a whole. McCain is right that troops and Patraeus. McCain likes to pretend war started in 2007 instead of 2003. Hitting McCain on location of WMD and being greeted as liberators. Judge us on our judgment.
McCain: (looks agitated) Obama doesn't know difference between tactic and strategy. Mentions story about meeting with 680 troops, "let us win". Obama doesn't agree that we are winning in Iraq. (Obama: that's not true). Says Obama voted to cut off funding for troops.
Obama: Says McCain opposed funding for troops because there was a timetable, he opposed funding because no timetable, says they only agreed on the timetable. Does know difference between strategy and tactic. Was this wise? Raises Afghanistan, says McCain said we were successful there. Give Iraq back its country. Commanders in Afghanistan say we don't have enough troops.
McCain: Says Mullen opposed Obama's plan (Obama says not true). Iraq is central battleground. Obama's plan will snatch defeat from jaws of victory.
Obama: First question is whether we should have gone into Iraq in the first place. Stood up and opposed because of dangers, and because we hadn't finished job in Afghanistan, thought it would be a distraction. Wishes he had been wrong for the sake of the country. Lost money and lives, Al Qaida is resurgent, we took eye off ball. Should never hesitate to use military force but use it wisely.
(Subjective: Obama seems to be saying more new material than McCain.)
McCain: Next president doesn't have to address whether we should have gone in or not. Next one has to decide when and if we go and what we leave behind. Says Obama opposed surge and mentions Obama went overseas only after 900 days. Talking about Obama's committee and that he never met with Patraeus.
Obama: Proud of his VP pick, issues don't go through his subcommittee, go through committee as a whole. McCain is right that troops and Patraeus. McCain likes to pretend war started in 2007 instead of 2003. Hitting McCain on location of WMD and being greeted as liberators. Judge us on our judgment.
McCain: (looks agitated) Obama doesn't know difference between tactic and strategy. Mentions story about meeting with 680 troops, "let us win". Obama doesn't agree that we are winning in Iraq. (Obama: that's not true). Says Obama voted to cut off funding for troops.
Obama: Says McCain opposed funding for troops because there was a timetable, he opposed funding because no timetable, says they only agreed on the timetable. Does know difference between strategy and tactic. Was this wise? Raises Afghanistan, says McCain said we were successful there. Give Iraq back its country. Commanders in Afghanistan say we don't have enough troops.
McCain: Says Mullen opposed Obama's plan (Obama says not true). Iraq is central battleground. Obama's plan will snatch defeat from jaws of victory.
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #3 - What Will Candidates Have to Give Up to Pay for Financial Rescue Plan
Obama: Some things will have to be delayed. Energy independence is a priority, freed from Middle Eastern oil within 10 years. Mentioned more production at home, plus alternative energy. Health care. Need to eliminate programs that don't work.
Obama seems MUCH more confident than he was at Saddleback, and far fewer "ums" and "uhs".
McCain's response back to cutting spending. Obama is most liberal senator. Get rid of ethanol subsidies. Wants to cut back on military spending. Talking about reforming contracts. Examine every agency of government, eliminate those not doing their jobs.
Lehrer: Neither of you seems to be saying what you'd give up.
Obama: Would delay energy plan but not give it up. Seems to be following McCain's lead on cutting spending. Bringing up lobbyists.
Obama accidentally said "Tom" instead of "John". Obama says he seems liberal because of opposing Bush's policies. "Google for government".
Lehrer is trying to get them to say what they will push off, they are resisting.
McCain suggests a spending freeze except for defence, veterans affairs and entitlement programs.
Obama says this is a hatchet when we need a scalpel. Says there are some programs we need. Mentions spending $10 bill in Iraq when they have $79 surplus.
McCain mentions the same points he's said before about sending $700 billion overseas, brings up energy issue again. No "drill here drill now" though. :)
Lehrer tries again.
Obama says there is no doubt it will affect how we run the country. Mentions we might make a profit as Roosevelt did in the 30s. In the short term there's an outlay, economy is slowing down and tax revenues may go down. To make tough decisions must know what our priorities are and mentions $300 billion tax cuts and leaving out healthcare is a bad choice.
McCain says doesn't want to hand over healthcare to federal government. Families should make decisions. He cuts spending, mentions $800 billion in spending from Obama. We can adjust spending around to take care of programs. Healthy economy with not raising anyone's taxes is best recipe for success. More about how he can reduce spending.
(Lehrer keeps asking about spending and so forth, what about the deficit and dollar?)
Obama: McCain, your president you agreed with 90% of the time, who presided over all this spending.
McCain: Smiling, says he hasn't been elected Miss Congeniality and has opposed president on various issues. "Maverick of the senate".
Obama seems MUCH more confident than he was at Saddleback, and far fewer "ums" and "uhs".
McCain's response back to cutting spending. Obama is most liberal senator. Get rid of ethanol subsidies. Wants to cut back on military spending. Talking about reforming contracts. Examine every agency of government, eliminate those not doing their jobs.
Lehrer: Neither of you seems to be saying what you'd give up.
Obama: Would delay energy plan but not give it up. Seems to be following McCain's lead on cutting spending. Bringing up lobbyists.
Obama accidentally said "Tom" instead of "John". Obama says he seems liberal because of opposing Bush's policies. "Google for government".
Lehrer is trying to get them to say what they will push off, they are resisting.
McCain suggests a spending freeze except for defence, veterans affairs and entitlement programs.
Obama says this is a hatchet when we need a scalpel. Says there are some programs we need. Mentions spending $10 bill in Iraq when they have $79 surplus.
McCain mentions the same points he's said before about sending $700 billion overseas, brings up energy issue again. No "drill here drill now" though. :)
Lehrer tries again.
Obama says there is no doubt it will affect how we run the country. Mentions we might make a profit as Roosevelt did in the 30s. In the short term there's an outlay, economy is slowing down and tax revenues may go down. To make tough decisions must know what our priorities are and mentions $300 billion tax cuts and leaving out healthcare is a bad choice.
McCain says doesn't want to hand over healthcare to federal government. Families should make decisions. He cuts spending, mentions $800 billion in spending from Obama. We can adjust spending around to take care of programs. Healthy economy with not raising anyone's taxes is best recipe for success. More about how he can reduce spending.
(Lehrer keeps asking about spending and so forth, what about the deficit and dollar?)
Obama: McCain, your president you agreed with 90% of the time, who presided over all this spending.
McCain: Smiling, says he hasn't been elected Miss Congeniality and has opposed president on various issues. "Maverick of the senate".
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #2 - How Candidates Will Solve Financial Crisis
Question about fundamental differences about how the two would solve financial crisis.
McCain talking about excessive spending, will veto spending bills, make them famous, etc. Brings up Obama's requests for earmarks.
Obama says he suspended earmarks pending review. Says earmarks only account for $18 billion, McCain is proposing tax cuts of $300 billion for the wealthy. Talks about how he wants to cut taxes for 95% of Americans.
McCain says Obama only wanted to cut the earmarks when he wanted to run for president. Says the money is all important. Says McCain is proposing $800 billion in new spending.
Obama says he will close corporate loopholes, go after companies shipping jobs overseas, talks about healthcare. Says we need earmark reform, says he will go line by line as McCain did. Said earmarks aren't enough. McCain's tax policies focus on those who are doing well.
Lehrer encourages McCain to respond directly to Obama. McCain doesn't though.
McCain says business pays second highest corporate taxes. Makes point about corruption and again talks about pork barrel spending and Obama's $932 million. Families should have $5,000 tax credit. Wants to lower taxes on everyone.
Obama focusing on camera again, saying 95% of Americans will get cut, for those under $250,000. Response on corporate taxes is that the rate is high but there are many loopholes. Says McCain will tax health benefits.
Lehrer tries to go forward. McCain raises energy bill with pork that he voted against, Obama voted for. He appears agitated. Obama tried to interject, couldn't hear what he said.
McCain keeps talking about "dividends" when he means credits I think.
McCain says Obama voted to increase taxes on people making as little as $42k, Obama immediately denies it. McCain laughing to himself.
Obama says McCain wants tax breaks for oil companies, McCain scoffing.
McCain talking about excessive spending, will veto spending bills, make them famous, etc. Brings up Obama's requests for earmarks.
Obama says he suspended earmarks pending review. Says earmarks only account for $18 billion, McCain is proposing tax cuts of $300 billion for the wealthy. Talks about how he wants to cut taxes for 95% of Americans.
McCain says Obama only wanted to cut the earmarks when he wanted to run for president. Says the money is all important. Says McCain is proposing $800 billion in new spending.
Obama says he will close corporate loopholes, go after companies shipping jobs overseas, talks about healthcare. Says we need earmark reform, says he will go line by line as McCain did. Said earmarks aren't enough. McCain's tax policies focus on those who are doing well.
Lehrer encourages McCain to respond directly to Obama. McCain doesn't though.
McCain says business pays second highest corporate taxes. Makes point about corruption and again talks about pork barrel spending and Obama's $932 million. Families should have $5,000 tax credit. Wants to lower taxes on everyone.
Obama focusing on camera again, saying 95% of Americans will get cut, for those under $250,000. Response on corporate taxes is that the rate is high but there are many loopholes. Says McCain will tax health benefits.
Lehrer tries to go forward. McCain raises energy bill with pork that he voted against, Obama voted for. He appears agitated. Obama tried to interject, couldn't hear what he said.
McCain keeps talking about "dividends" when he means credits I think.
McCain says Obama voted to increase taxes on people making as little as $42k, Obama immediately denies it. McCain laughing to himself.
Obama says McCain wants tax breaks for oil companies, McCain scoffing.
Presidential Debate #1 - Live Blog #1
My first live blog, hope I don't mess it up. :)
Men greet each other, smiles and handshakes. No hugs this time. :)
First question is where do the men stand on the bailout plan.
Obama goes first. Generalities.. talking about main street versus wall street. He's now listing off his points for the plan, such as oversight, gains for taxpayers, no CEO "golden parachutes" etc. Now pivoting to attack on deregulation and the McCain/Bush policies, etc.
I notice not as much "ahs and ums" from Obama in that intro.
McCain starting out talking about Kennedy in the hospital. McCain talking about Rs and Ds sitting down together. Need to fix crisis, etc. Lists off many similar requirements for the package as Obama. Now talking about the House Republicans and says they decided they want to be part of this process. Says it is the "end of the beginning".
I notice: Obama faced the camera, McCain faced the moderator. (Obama is facing Lehrer on his second reply though.)
Lehrer again asking if they favor the plan.
Obama says we haven't seen it yet, focusing on how we got into the mess. Focusing on need for regulation and the fact that we haven't had very much over the years.
McCain saying he also warned about the trainwreck coming. Story about Eisenhower. Now justifying his call for firing the head of the SEC because we need to hold people accountable. Says people will be held accountable in his administration.
Redirect to Obama, he says we need responsibility but not just in a crisis. Again focusing on Wall St. vs Main St.
Obama brings up the "fundamentals of the economy are strong"... Lehrer tells him to say it to McCain. :) More about Main St.
Lehrer trying to get them to speak directly to each other, but they are talking to him so far. may not be familiar with this new format.
McCain says we have problems and says he has faith in the American worker. We have to get through these times, has faith that our best days are ahead of us.
Men greet each other, smiles and handshakes. No hugs this time. :)
First question is where do the men stand on the bailout plan.
Obama goes first. Generalities.. talking about main street versus wall street. He's now listing off his points for the plan, such as oversight, gains for taxpayers, no CEO "golden parachutes" etc. Now pivoting to attack on deregulation and the McCain/Bush policies, etc.
I notice not as much "ahs and ums" from Obama in that intro.
McCain starting out talking about Kennedy in the hospital. McCain talking about Rs and Ds sitting down together. Need to fix crisis, etc. Lists off many similar requirements for the package as Obama. Now talking about the House Republicans and says they decided they want to be part of this process. Says it is the "end of the beginning".
I notice: Obama faced the camera, McCain faced the moderator. (Obama is facing Lehrer on his second reply though.)
Lehrer again asking if they favor the plan.
Obama says we haven't seen it yet, focusing on how we got into the mess. Focusing on need for regulation and the fact that we haven't had very much over the years.
McCain saying he also warned about the trainwreck coming. Story about Eisenhower. Now justifying his call for firing the head of the SEC because we need to hold people accountable. Says people will be held accountable in his administration.
Redirect to Obama, he says we need responsibility but not just in a crisis. Again focusing on Wall St. vs Main St.
Obama brings up the "fundamentals of the economy are strong"... Lehrer tells him to say it to McCain. :) More about Main St.
Lehrer trying to get them to speak directly to each other, but they are talking to him so far. may not be familiar with this new format.
McCain says we have problems and says he has faith in the American worker. We have to get through these times, has faith that our best days are ahead of us.
How to Figure Out Who Won the Debate
Judd Legum makes some good points about how debates are won or lost based on key moments and perceptions.
McCain Gives Up Home Field Advantage
As I surmised last night, McCain risks a very hostile reaction from what was previously likely to be a favorable audience.
McCain Flip-Flops, Will Attend Debate
McCain lied. What a surprise, that hardly EVER happens. B.S. spin from the Keystone Kops Kampaign:
Senator McCain has spent the morning talking to members of the Administration, members of the Senate, and members of the House. He is optimistic that there has been significant progress toward a bipartisan agreement now that there is a framework for all parties to be represented in negotiations, including Representative Blunt as a designated negotiator for House Republicans. The McCain campaign is resuming all activities and the Senator will travel to the debate this afternoon. Following the debate, he will return to Washington to ensure that all voices and interests are represented in the final agreement, especially those of taxpayers and homeowners.
I WIll Be Live Blogging the First Presidential Debate
For those who might care, I will be live blogging the debate tonight (Edit: which is now on, since McDramaQueen flip-flopped.)
Question of the Day -- What Will McCain Do?
He's kind of painted himself into a corner, though he has the luxury of lying about the reasons and implications of any choice he makes, knowing a bunch of people will swallow it.
Personally, I think he loses more by not showing up than he does if he shows.
Personally, I think he loses more by not showing up than he does if he shows.
I Wonder...
If McCain actually shows up tomorrow night, will he get booed? It's a "home field" crowd for him in Mississippi, but the Ole Miss folks must be royally pissed at him trying to blow them off.
Maybe not, but if they do, it will look really bad. Then again, McCain looks really bad constantly these days.
Maybe not, but if they do, it will look really bad. Then again, McCain looks really bad constantly these days.
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