Friday, September 12, 2008

More Random Thoughts from the Internals on the Newsweek Poll

More quickie analysis from the latest Newsweek poll...

1. McCain has 91% of Republicans, Obama has only 85% of Democrats. This is not great news for McCain, but I'm not sure Obama can capitalize on the extra potential for him to draw Dems, since a big chunk of those are single-issue voters or racists. Still, that's what his surrogates will be after.

2. Obama still leads 44-43% among independents. I think that will shift Obama's way once Palinmania wears off.

3. McCain is killing Obama among evangelicals, which I expected, but also Catholics (probably due to the abortion issue).

4. McCain's biggest gains are in strength of support, which means people are voting because of Palin, not him.

5. Was surprised to see 77% of Obama supporters and 88% of McCain supporters say they considered VP important. This is a risk area to McCain, again, because Palin's support is based on myths and "celebrity".

6. Favorability ratings of Obama/McCain nearly the same.

7. Hillary Clinton, even out of the limelight, *still* has a 43% unfavorable rating, which really puts the dampers on some of the "Hillary to the rescue" scenarios.

8. People think McCain/Palin can bring change but that's not why they are voting for them.

9. This is a biggie: everyone talks about the economy being the big issue. But while 55% of Obama supporters list it as such, only 23% of McCain supporters do. McCain leads 22-7% among those who list taxes and spending as their primary concern, suggesting Obama is failing on educating voters about his tax plan.

10. They are about evenly split on ability to handle energy issues, which is why I think the "drill drill drill" nonsense is on the back burner.

No comments: