Thursday, September 18, 2008

Obama Pulls Into Lead in National Polling

Most of you are probably aware of this by now, but the tide has definitely turned in the national polling, with Obama taking a lead of around 4 points in most of the higher-rated tracking polls. He is still at just +2 on Gallup, but that will likely change today. A new New York Times / CBS poll has Obama up 5, and Quinnipiac's new poll has Obama's edge at 4.

The sole outlier is Rasmussen, who still shows the race tied. This is not, I believe, because Rasmussen is biased (as he is often accused of being), but rather just because he weights his poll differently, with a greater number of Republicans than other polls. He does change his party composition regularly, so I expect him to move towards the other polls sooner or later.

Most of these favorable results for Obama have not yet shown up in the state polling, which is what really matters, though it is starting to happen. I expect this will continue over the next week, unless something happens to shift the race again.

Later today I will publish an analysis based on a couple of the recent poll details, with some observations you may find interesting.

1 comment:

Eddie said...

It's great. What's so terrible about this election though is that, when it's about the issues, Obama pulls ahead, and when it's about celebrity and lipstick, McCain comes ahead. The crumbling of the Lehman Brothers, the bailouts, and the failing of economy finally forced the media to focus on the issue, and Obama really has the upper hand on the issue. McCain doesn't have much, except going back and forth, which no consistency.