Sunday, October 5, 2008

Obama's Lead Stable for the Moment

Barack Obama appears to have consolidated a sizable lead over John McCain with a little more than four weeks until Election Day. Not only is this good news for his future chances, it is a positive development for his campaign given that early voting has already commenced in many states.

Scott Rasmussen, who is a Republican and has a reputation of slightly Republican-leaning results in his polls, has shown Obama at 50-51% and McCain at 44-45% for the last 10 days. He remarks:

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama. In other words, while the race is not over, McCain needs a significant--game-changing—event to win the White House. Simply doing what he’s been doing a little better will not be enough.

There’s no mystery as to why the race has moved in Obama’s direction--it’s the economy.

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